Who's next for Astonishing X-Men?

Alas, with time all good things must come to an end. With only 8 more issues of Joss Whedon & John Cassaday's sublime run on Astonishing X-Men still to come, I thought this would be a good time to handicap the field of contenders to replace Whedon as writer. (I'll discuss pencillers who can follow Cassaday at a later date) The list is far from exhaustive, but for brevity's sake I have left out any writers that are under exclusive contract with the competition (Geoff Johns), have poor relationships with Marvel (John Byrne), or have never before expressed interest in penning a comic (Chris Nolan).

Chris Claremont
Odds: 500-1
Claremont is one of the all time greats, and X-Men probably wouldn't be the 500 pound gorilla it is today without his seminal work on the title. But, as his last few runs on the core titles have show, he just doesn't have the magic touch anymore. That, combined with health problems that forced him off of New Excalibur & Exiles, pretty much rules him out. I think Marvel will give him an X-Title to shepherd for as long as he wants one, but his days as the main writer are over.

Brian Michael Bendis
Odds: 100-1
Even those fans that hate BMB have to admit that his books sell. That said, I don't see him taking over a core X-Men title. Putting him at the helm of both Avengers books is putting all of Marvel's eggs in one basket. Giving him an X-Men book as well would be insanity, especially since he still isn't as comfortable on team books as he is on noir-ish street level books.

Neil Gaiman
Odds: 85-1
After years of working pretty exclusively with his own creations, Gaiman has been involved in more and more projects set in Marvel's main sandbox. While my mouth is watering at the thought of him taking a turn with my favorite mutants, he doens't seem too eager to leap into such a high profile, continuity heavy book.

Warren Ellis
Odds: 50-1
While some of Ellis' earliest American work was on the satellite X-Titles, he's never gotten a crack at the core books. However, much like Gaiman, Ellis at this point in his career doesn't seem very intersted in writing books where he doesn't have near-total creative control. Unlike Gaiman, I think Ellis can be persuaded to take the job if he is given as much leeway as Morrison and Whedon got on their runs. Still he's something of a longshot.

Peter David, Dan Slott, or Fabian Niczea
Odds: 50-1, each
All three men are good writers with strong followings. All three are also thought of as 'fan favorites' with 'cult followings' which isn't a good thing in the eyes of management. They are also (fairly or unfairly) labeled as 'quirky' writers, which may not be what Marvel is looking for.

Robert Kirkman
Odds: 40-1
I think Kirkman is a tremendous writer. The thousands of fans that buy Invincible & Walking Dead religiously think he's a tremendous writer. Marvel's top brass? I'm not sure what they think of him. His highest profile main universe stuff has been Marvel Team-Up, a book which was quite honestly doomed from the start. He is penning the new Ant-Man book, which is a good sign, but I just don't think Marvel's braintrust is willing to give him such a high profile job yet. Yes, I know he's writing Ultimate X-Men. Two things. 1) He only got the job because Bryan Singer's run was delayed again. Whether this delay has to do with Singer's hectic schedule, or the fact that Ultimates 2 still isn't finished doesn't change the fact that Kirkman was a fill in on UX-M. 2) I don't think Marvel wants someone doing both Ultimate and Astonishing at the same time.

Unnamed Television or Movie Writer
Odds: 30-1
A lot of writers have made the jump from major outlet television to comics in the past few years. Allan Heinberg, Damon Lindelof, Mark Verheiden, even Whedon himself got their jobs in comics based on their work on the small screen. They also have one other thing in common: lateness. Astonishing has published only 16 issues in 28 months. The books of the other writers listed, other than Verheiden, are similarly tardy. While Marvel has worked around Whedon's schedule, it's unlikely they'd be willing to accomidate another 'tourist' the next time.

J. M. Straczinski
Odds: 15-1
JMS has, in just a couple of years, gone from a 'tourist' to one of the architects of the Marvel U. His reimagining of the Squadron Supreme has been great, and his run on Spider-Man...well lets say he has a 'unique' vision for the character and leave it at that. He does have a lot on his plate: FF, Amazing, Suqadron Supreme, Ultimate Power, Bullet Points and whatever DTV Babylon 5 movies get produced, but for the job on Astonishing I assume he'd drop something.

Mark Millar
Odds: 8-1
The preemminent writer at Marvel right now. Civil War, The Ultimates, Wolverine, everything he touches turns to gold. He has experience with the X-Men, having launched the Ultimate version of the book, BUT he almost never ships his books on time, and whoever takes over Astonishing has to get it out on a regular basis. If he can be paired with a penciller that can keep a schedule I think he'd be a good fit, especially since his run on The Ultimates is finally close to an end. However he's still battling Crohn's Disease and would benefit greatly from 6-12 months of light duty after Civil War wraps up. A contender, but not my odds-on favorite for the job.

Jeph Loeb
Odds: 4-1
Loeb returned to Marvel recently after becoming a megastar at the Distinguished Competition. He's already comitted to The Ultimates 3 & 4, Ultimate Power, Wolverine and an unspecified Spiderman project. That's a lot of work for a man that still writes for multiple television shows, including Smallville, Lost and Heroes, even if his rep for lateness wasn't one of the worst in comics. With all of those marks against him, why do I still make him the odds on favorite? Because, to use a baseball metaphor, he's a homerun hitter. He won't always make contact, but when he does it's going out of the park. In fact I think Astonishing was, along with The Ultimates, the book Marvel had in mind when they signed him.

This list also goes to show that while exclusive contracts may be good for the Big Two, they're bad for the fans. Guys like Geoff Johns, Kurt Busiek and Mark Waid would be great on Astonishing, but they are, for now, unavailable.